Election results are anyone’s guess. We’ve got predictions anyway—five of them—to help wall-and-ceiling contractors gear up for business.
What are the odds of correctly predicting the results of this month’s presidential election?
4 in 5—if the stock market is booming. Since 1928, a positive stock market, specifically one growing three months prior to election day, favors the incumbent party 80% of the time, says the chief technical strategist for an investment advisory firm quoted by Yahoo Finance. If the S&P 500 benchmark is up this year, the Democratic candidate has the edge. But if the S&P 500 is down, the party in power could lose. It has lost “eight of the last nine times,” the strategist says.
4.5 in 5—if you’re Allan Lichtman. A historian at American University in Washington, DC, Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections. According to USA Today, he bases his predictions on several factors, including the most recent midterm election results, the strength of the U.S. economy and even the charisma of each candidate. This year, Lichtman predicts a Democratic win. But remember, he has been wrong—once.
Next to nil—if you’re Justin Grimmer. Writing in Politico, professor Grimmer of Stanford says election forecasts can’t be trusted. A paper he co-authored with Dean Knox of the University of Pennsylvania and Sean Westwood of Dartmouth College states that anywhere from 28 to 4,000 years’ worth of election data is needed to accurately predict the final vote for president.
So, there you have it. You can track stocks, adopt the view of your favorite seer or see what AWCI member contractors say about November 5. Yeah, read on. We’ve gleaned five election take-aways that could impact your business.
More Work for Americans
Mike Taylor, chief executive officer of Liddle Brothers Contractors, Inc. in Tennessee and an AWCI past president, sees several advantages to a victory for former President Donald Trump.“If the Republican candidate wins the election, the policies he implemented in the past, and that he would re-implement if elected, would go a long way in controlling border issues, interest rates and inflation.” Taylor says Trump “would help put American workers back to work.”
While not necessarily taking a contrasting view, but nevertheless expressing a note of caution, Rob Aird, president of Robert A. Aird, Inc., in Maryland, speculates that a Republican win would lead to fewer government controls and less support for workers. He feels a Democratic win by Vice President Kamala Harris would be friendlier for tradespeople.
Aird says the construction market has a lot of pent-up demand. Projects that have been put on hold will go out for bid in the coming months, regardless of who wins the election, he says.
“A lot of run-of-the-mill work—hotels, apartments and retail—is pending the election and the outcome of the Federal Reserve chairman’s interest rate announcement,” Aird says.
The Fed did cut interest rates by half a point on September 18, marking the first trim in Fed rates since 2020. Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said the U.S. economy is growing “at a solid pace” and that “the labor market is in a strong place,” a Washington Post article says. Construction executives said the Fed’s rate cut is “likely to spur new project starts,” a ConstructionDive article notes.
This is welcomed news for AWCI specialty contractors. Some, such as C. Brent Allen, vice president at Compass Construction in Ohio and an AWCI past president, says the wall and ceiling industry has seen a downturn typical for the industry just prior to a presidential election.
“With the contractual nature of everything, our industry lags behind other industries, though there might be other dynamics going on,” Allen says. “The election has a lot to do with it, as it has in the past.”
“There’s a lot of pent-up demand to build buildings,” he adds. “It’s been a ‘wait and see,’ but we expect more customers to say, ‘Okay, we’re going to move forward now.’”
More Labor Shortages
Since many projects may have been put on hold pending the outcome of the election, wall and ceiling contractors could soon see a flood of business. While an uptick in construction activity would likely be gradual, Aird says a growing economy could lead “to a horrific manpower shortage.” In other words, a stronger than expected economy could put construction companies into a scramble to assemble crews from a smaller pool of workers.
Stan Marek, chief executive officer of the Marek Family of Companies in Texas, says a Trump victory could lead to his taking actions that aggravate the existing labor shortage. While not opposed to Trump’s views on border control, Marek is concerned that Trump might order mass deportations and eliminate protections for immigrants lacking documentation under programs, such as the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals or DACA.
Aird says it will be important to stay informed about labor trends to fulfill future projects.
According to a 2024 FMI/AWCI survey funded by the Foundation of the Association of the Wall and Ceiling Industry, many contractors have experienced notable decrease in labor productivity in the last 18 months, noting that certain roles are in most need:
- Skilled crafts/trades
- Field management
- Estimators/project managers
- General labor
- Executive management
- Administration and accounting
Participants of the survey also are thinking about next generation of ownership and/or will be engaged in succession planning in th e coming months, as well as other strategic priorities:
- Downsizing
- Improving business operations
- Slowing of the market
- Developing workforce
They note their most pressing challenges overall include the current economic and political environments, availability of labor and people development.
More Talk About Immigration
With an economy spurred on by lower interest rates (so far), the role of immigrant workers in filling jobs comes to the fore. Marek says it is time to talk about the undocumented immigrant work question.
“As far as the overall economy, I don’t see much changing with the changing of the guard,” Marek says. “But there is the potential with Trump, who’s talking about mass deportations, eliminating green cards and getting rid of DACA—you hope it’s just electoral rhetoric—but with him, you don’t really know.”
Marek says association members need to address the labor shortages to keep their projects moving along.
“There’s a lot of work out there, and people are retiring every year,” Marek says. “If we didn’t have immigrant workers coming across the border, many projects would stop. That’s why I want border security to stop the flow of workers and ID and Tax for the ones already here. A lot of them have the skills I need, but I can’t hire them.”
ID and Tax is an immigration reform proposal that would act like a guest worker program similar to DACA, says Marek.
Under the proposal, undocumented workers who have lived in the United States for at least five years and who pass a background check, could become employable as W-2 wage earners. They would pay taxes. They would receive “a tamper-proof ID allowing them to work legally,” Marek says. But they would not have “the privilege to receive welfare or have voting rights,” he adds.
An ID and Tax program would raise Social Security’s coffers by $4.75 billion a year “for every one million workers taken out of the underground economy and put on a W-2 payroll,” Marek says.
He calls ID and Tax a “common sense” program because it would address the skilled labor shortage hurting construction while boosting tax revenue. But for the program to work properly, securing the borders would be important. Border security and asylum system reform need to be part of the immigration discussion, Marek says. A Democratic president might enable such discussions. In contrast, a Republican win might bring little change to immigration, unless sudden deportations disrupt projects, Marek says.
More Tariffs
The New York Times says both candidates embrace tariffs to protect American industry, though their approaches differ. The Biden administration has kept former president Trump’s initial tariffs on China in place and has proposed new tariffs.
Would more tariffs raise input prices for commercial construction? “I seriously doubt it,” Taylor says.
A National Association of Home Builders article says tariffs placed on imported lumber, steel, aluminum and other building materials have “needlessly” pushed up housing costs.
Even so, it’s hard to say definitively that tariffs have inflated the prices of lumber and cold-formed steel studs delivered to your job sites. Whether tariffs have a bearing or not, large subcontractors such as Marek Brothers seem to be able to pass along cost increases to their customers.
“I don’t mind paying more for materials, as long as I can pass it on to the owner,” Marek says. “You charge me more for drywall, and I just charge my customer more. Instead of making 10% on $1.00, I make 10% on $1.25.”
But smaller firms, those doing $10 million in annual revenue or less, find that hard to do.
More Interest Rate Questions
A recent Pew Research Center poll reported that Trump had the advantage on the economy, a critical issue for voters this year. A majority of voters, 55%, said they were very or somewhat confident in Trump to make good decisions about economic policy, compared with 45% who said that about Harris.
But when it comes to interest rate levels, a primary determinant of the health of the economy, does a sitting president have that much bearing on the direction of interest rates? Some AWCI member contractors say yes.
“The election has a lot to do with interest rates long term,” says Taylor, who believes a Trump victory would lead to a better construction environment compared to a Democratic Party win.
“Inflation and rising interest rates would continue,” Taylor says. “The cost of living for the average American would go up, and our taxes would also increase substantially if the Democratic Party is elected.”
Others feel differently.
“I think the Fed and the banking system pushes the levers,” Marek says. “Interest rates should not be a political thing. It should be an economic thing, and I think we’ve got a good system in place to control that.”
And yet, uncertainties about the future abound. A columnist for the New York Times wrote after the Fed rate cut in September that “there’s plenty to worry about.” He mentioned geopolitical concerns ranging from “hostilities in the Middle East to Russia’s war in Ukraine to incipient conflicts involving China in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.” In a news conference after the rate cut, Fed chair Powell was careful not to make promises. He said: “We’re not saying mission accomplished or anything like that.”
What Should You Do?
In lieu of making changes based on election predictions, most AWCI member contractors are planning for more business with strategies already in place.
Taylor advises companies to remain agile in the months ahead. “Batten down the hatches,” Taylor says. “Be lean and mean and stay prepared to make any needed moves.”
Taylor embraces the future. But he says Liddle Brothers has made no recent changes to its operations and has no plans to adjust course based on the election. “We’ve been in position to address any business concerns for some time,” he says.
Taylor believes the construction market is on a growth trajectory. Marek agrees.
“The owners aren’t stopping. The general contractors aren’t stopping, and so the subs [specialty contractors] can’t stop,” Marek says. “It’s full speed ahead.”
Aird anticipates a boom in repurposing offices into apartments and plans to go after that business.
“We just keep our nose to the grindstone, bid everything we can and do the best we can with what we land,” Aird says.
Marek says his company has not made any significant changes in its equipment investments due to the election. While Marek Brothers has increased its off-site prefabrication operations and has plans for more sophisticated prefabrication in the future, Marek says this investment is unrelated to the election.
Marek says his company has “a lot of work—a big backlog.” To attract talent, the firm continues to recruit in high schools, improve its training programs and raise wages.
“Our wages have gone up 20% to attract people into the trades,” Marek says. “Our wages have always been too low. Everybody’s wages are too low. And if we can pay 20% more than our competitors, maybe we’ll get people to come over to help us.”
Mark L. Johnson writes regularly about the wall and ceiling industry. You can reach him at linkedin.com/in/markjohnsoncommunications.
Disclaimer: The information, quotes, and ideas and opinions in this article are those of the quoted official with cited sources and/or those of the interviewee. AWCI does not endorse specific political parties.
